It’s been a grand slam home run for Indiana University of Pennsylvania’s Applied Research Lab and the Altoona Curve—and for IUP Applied Research Lab graduate assistant and applied mathematics master’s program student Joshua Pettenò.
IUP’s Applied Research Lab, a research consulting center that assists the IUP research community as part of IUP’s Research and Innovation, was approached by the Altoona Curve’s management team through Christina Koren, director of IUP’s Office of Strategic Partnerships— for a research project to analyze attendance rates for Altoona Curve games.
The Altoona Curve is the Double-A affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates baseball team. The team’s home field is Peoples Natural Gas Field in Altoona.
“The ARL’s focus is on providing support to IUP researchers, both faculty and students, but we take on some select research projects that support communities and provide valuable, real-life experience for our students who work in the Applied Research Lab,” ARL Director and Executive Research Associate Paul Hawkins said. IUP’s Applied Research Lab provides hundreds of research design and data analysis consultations each year for hundreds of projects across over a dozen disciplines.
Qualified students can apply for graduate assistantships in the ARL, working under Hawkins’ supervision; in the spring semester, there are two students working in the ARL.
Hawkins chose Pettenò, an applied mathematics master’s degree student, to work on the Altoona Curve project.
Pettenò, originally from Italy and a former member of the IUP basketball team, is interested in a career in applied mathematics and data science after his graduation from IUP in May.
After meeting with the Altoona Curve management team in 2023 to understand the goals for the project, Hawkins prepared a proposal for the research project in spring 2024.
“Altoona Curve General Manager Nate Bowen wanted us to assess the attendance rate for the team’s home games, using data on tickets sold, while accounting for the population and market size, which is a form of market penetration measurement,” Hawkins said.
“He also wanted data on how attendance rates for Altoona Curve home games compare to other minor league affiliates’ attendance rates for teams in the same AA league, as well as their AAA and MLB affiliates,” he said.
In addition to examining attendance rates, the ARL is interested in studying and analyzing factors that could impact changes in game-by-game attendance rates, including start time of the game, weather, promotional events like fireworks or giveaways, opponent, and the team record.
“In essence, they needed a robust, evidence-based report conducted by research experts to test their hypotheses, report the results, draw conclusions, and make recommendations,” Hawkins said.
The project began in summer 2024, using three years of data from the Altoona Curve on ticket sales and attendance.
“The Altoona Curve general manager had a hypothesis that the Altoona Curve was outperforming other teams throughout MLB and minor league baseball in terms of attendance, while accounting for market size, stadium size, fill rate, and attendance rate change over time. After analyzing the data, we found out that the data supports his hypothesis,” Hawkins said. “The data showed that the Altoona Curve ranks third in attendance compared to all AA teams in the United States and outperforms eight other major league teams in terms of ticket sales and attendance from 2021 to 2023.”
To analyze the data, the ARL team developed a ranking system for each of the 30 major league baseball teams and their respective AA and AAA minor league affiliates, 90 total teams, and created an index to determine results; they call it “the Bowen Index,” named after the Altoona Curve General Manager Nate Bowen.
“Our first iteration of step one of the project, focusing on attendance, is complete; we have recently received the 2024 MLB attendance data, and will use it to continue to refine our index and update our rankings. As we get additional data, we’ll work on steps two and three of the project, which includes assessing the impact of various interventions aimed to increase attendance at Altoona Curve games, and then evaluating the Altoona Curve’s regional economic impact,” Hawkins said.
“Joshua has done an outstanding job with this project, including working closely with the client,” Hawkins said.
“We were excited to partner with IUP on this project to test our hypothesis and take a look at a lot of data that is out there on attendance in professional sports,” Bowen said. “The amount of data and analysis that we received in such a short time has been incredible and will help us to make decisions related to our promotional schedule and market size in future seasons. I am really excited to continue working on this project for the remaining phases.”
Pettenò came to IUP after studying at a number of American colleges, including in Wyoming, Florida, and Georgia.
“A friend of mine in my program had worked in the ARL and was graduating. He told me about the opportunity, I interviewed for the position, and began work at the ARL in May 2024,” he said.
“Both Dr. Hawkins and I share a common experience of being athletes [Hawkins played baseball during his undergraduate years], so we really clicked, and this project was something that was very interesting to me,” Pettenò said. “I had done some analysis related to sports, but the Altoona Curve project was different—we had to really refine the data to determine the answer to the question of ‘is the Altoona Curve doing better than some major league teams and their affiliates in terms of ticket sales and game attendance?’” he said.
“The great thing about science and mathematics is that the data is what it is,” Pettenò said.
“As we move on to phases two and three that focus on economic impact, there’s an opportunity for us to find commonalities and create a model of the factors that have led to the Altoona Curve’s success. This model could be used by other baseball organizations and communities hosting sports teams,” he said.
Pettenò said that his classes have provided the foundation for his work, but working at the ARL means that his studies are much more than memorization to pass exams.
“When you apply what you’ve learned in class to real-life situations, it’s an experience beyond textbook scenarios, and the skills really stick with you. That’s something that definitely creates an advantage when you’re competing for jobs. Working at the ARL is truly an exceptional student learning experience.
“In addition to working with data, I’ve also learned how to work with clients. Dr. Hawkins has allowed me to really take the lead on this project, and it’s been an incredible experience,” Pettenò said. “My studies, combined with my experience with the ARL, have helped me to be very marketable for jobs in my field,” he said.